Economic or Operating Exposure

Leverage, Margin, Balance, Equity, Free Margin, Margin Call And Stop Out Level In Forex Trading

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In addition, while transaction and translation exposure can be accurately estimated and therefore hedged , economic exposure is difficult to quantify precisely and as a result is challenging to hedge. Consider a large U. Their bearish view on the dollar was based on issues such as the recurring U. However, a rapidly improving U. The outlook for the next two years suggests further gains in store for the dollar, as monetary policy in Japan remains very stimulative and the European economy is just emerging out of recession.

The value of a foreign asset or overseas cash flow fluctuates as the exchange rate changes. From your Statistics class, you would know that a regression analysis of the asset value P versus the spot exchange rate S should produce the following regression equation:. The regression coefficient is defined as the ratio of the covariance between the asset value and the exchange rate, to the variance of the spot rate.

Mathematically it is defined as:. USMed is concerned about a potential long-term decline in the euro, and since it wants to maximize the dollar value of its EuroMax stake, would like to estimate its economic exposure. USMed thinks the possibility of a stronger or weaker euro is even, i.

In the strong-euro scenario, the currency would appreciate to 1. In the weak-euro scenario, the currency would decline to 1. In this example, we have used a possibility of a stronger or weaker euro for the sake of simplicity.

However, different probabilities can also be used, in which case the calculations would be a weighted average of these probabilities.

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Some economists are trying to explain this behavior.

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