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You can get two traders, give them the same set of rules and they will produce totally different results. It all comes to their mental integrity, and ability to stick by the rules under pressure. We can all learn something from Mark — he has dedicated his life to help people mentally and emotionally with their trading. Many outstanding intelligent people are horrible traders. Average intelligence is enough. Beyond that, emotional makeup is more important. A lot people including myself at one stage thought to be an active trader on any financial market, you needed to go through the motions of: It takes hardly any effort to set yourself up as a Forex trader.
Thanks to the advances in technology we can download the required software and setup up an account literally in minutes. Would either Einstein or Isaac Newton have made good traders?
Here Mark talks about the practicality of following the fundamentals that contribute to price movements. I am going to take a swing at you here, and assume at one stage in your trading career you pulled up the news calendar, frantically hit the refresh button, waiting for that economic data to be printed on your screen so you could place a trade in response. By the time you scurry over to your trading software and initiate a sell order, you find the market has moved significantly before you even had a chance to place an order.
Real fundamental analysis is the study of economic situations of different countries and making an educated speculation whether that countries currency is undervalued or overvalued based all the economic and political data you have.
As Mark Douglas pointed out, fundamental analysis is only effective at making long term predictions on a given market.
Trades like this would need to span over months, even a year. Using data from the charts themselves, you can anticipate future price movements without the hassle of sifting through mountains of economic data. They crave the sense of certainty that analysis appears to give them. But, the second sell signal the yellow zone , looks like a good short trade setup.
So going against MACD is risky. Of course, the above signal formed by the candlesticks are not strong enough. That is why the price did not reverse and kept on going up. As novice traders are unable to distinguish the strong candlestick trade setups, having MACD can be a big help not to go against the trend based on the weak trade setups.
MACD also indicates whether the market is overbought or oversold. When it is overbought, it is riskier to go long and when it is oversold, it is riskier to go short. When the market is overbought, Bulls buyers can start collecting their profit they sell at any time, and so the price may go down, and when the market is oversold, Bears can start buying at any time, and so the price may go up.
Of course, the candlesticks also tell you if the market is overbought or oversold, but MACD is also a big help. You are a trend trader. You have an uptrend here below.
You see some reversal signals, but you wait for a continuation signal to go long. A strong Bullish candlestick forms the last one on the below chart and at the same time the last MACD bar changes its color and shows an upward pressure. Of course it can go much higher, but we never know:. This position goes up only for one more candlestick and then goes down and triggers your stop loss:. MACD trading is so common among the Forex traders. They just wait for a fresh MACD movement for a few bars and then they enter.
MACD is really good for trend trading. MACD has to be used as a confirmation only. The main indicator is the price. If you use MACD as a confirmation for support and resistance breakout, it will be a big help. Look at the below image. There is a trend line with valid and visible support line. You are waiting for the support breakout to go short. It is above the zero level too.
So you go short at the open of the next candlestick, set your stop loss above the high price of the last candlestick and your target will be the next support level. It goes down and hits the target very easily. Obviously, it is a new chance to take another short position, but look at the MACD and its difference with the previous position. With the previous position, MACD started going down while it was way above the zero level.
It means, you would go short while market has been overbought which is a good decision. In this position below , not only MACD is not above the zero level, but it has already started going up and making higher lows. So the market is oversold and your sell signal is not fresh. If you use the traditional MACD, then the same divergence can form with the main and signal line. The rule says, the price will finally follow the MACD direction and will go down.
However, the problem is you never know when the price will start following the MACD direction. So, if you rush and take a short position right when you see the MACD Divergence, it may keep on going up for several more candlesticks.
MACD Divergence can be seen at the end of uptrends. What does it mean? The market can collapse at any time. Fear is stronger than greed and when markets go down, fear is the dominant emotion.
MACD Convergence forms when price goes down and forms lower highs or lower lows, but at the same time MACD bars go up and form higher highs or higher lows. The rule says, the price will finally change the direction and will follow MACD.
MACD Convergence can be seen at the end of downtrends. It means if you are a trend trader, you should not go short when you see that MACD Convergence is formed. I have been in the markets for over 12 years, but still your detailed approach helps a lot in fine tuning my strategy from my experience macd is one of the best indicators. I came to an idea to study macd after a trader i knew from a big bank few years ago was making millions dollars a year using Elliott waves with macd.
Thanks Dr Chris the concept is broadly explained. I have a question how possible is it to use the crossing of the main and signal line in determining the trend movement. Does it have any effect? I notice the predominant upward presense of the Red line which is the main line in an upward trend?
MACD is a slow and lagging indicator and so it is good for following the trends. Additionally the crossing of the main and signal line usually reflects the trend exhaustion and reversal. Open Your chart and click on add indicator.. As author, you may use with HikenAshi chart. Although MACD is lagging.. Can we set main line and signal line manually??
Please Chris tell me values.. Here we are using the MACD histogram only. For the purpose you explained, you need to have the MACD both with the lines and histogram like what we have here: Please explain what is ment by it? Minimal surface oxidation for series stainless. Forex p pickling paste stainless.
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February 8, at 6:
Excellence is not an exception, it is a prevailing attitude. A trader needs to master the skill of suppressing these dangerous emotions — especially while in front of the charts.