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Extreme liquidity and the availability of high leverage have helped to spur the market's rapid growth and made it the ideal place for many traders. Positions can be opened and closed within minutes or can be held for months. Currency prices are based on objective considerations of supply and demand and cannot be manipulated easily because the size of the market does not allow even the largest players, such as central banks, to move prices at will.
The forex market provides plenty of opportunity for investors. However, in order to be successful, a currency trader has to understand the basics behind currency movements. The goal of this forex tutorial is to provide a foundation for investors or traders who are new to the foreign currency markets. We'll cover the basics of exchange rates, the market's history and the key concepts you need to understand in order to be able to participate in this market.
Hold a break below and the near-term price bias turns more bearish. Right now, the The yen and the dollar is among the early movers so far ahead of European markets open as equity sentiment continues to sour. Over the last two weeks, any breaks below the hour MA blue line were quickly resolved as buyers helped to bring price action back above it during the same day. Let's see if risk sentiment today will be a big part of driving market action. Given that we had month-end trading to deal with last week as well, the start of the new month this week may see some clearer and more lasting moves especially if risk comes back into focus.
Let's take the CAD first. For sometime the uncertainty of the deal was weighing on the CAD and the strengthening domestic outlook was having to play second fiddle to the international trade uncertainty. CAD is going to continue to be bid in the near term and pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities. Conversely, the AUD is slightly weaker on the Chinese industrial data on out from the weekend showing a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing.
Global trade tensions between China and the US is starting to weigh on Chinese manufacturing as the uncertainty in tariffs is leading to an inevitable slowdown in manufacturing. This has weighed on the Australian dollar and, with the RBA coming out pretty much as expected, it has continued to decline.
There is nothing to halt that decline in the near term, save an improvement in the US China trade war which doesn't look very likely in the short term. Although ultimately the deal will be done, it is just a question of when. So, let's take a technical look at the chart.
Dollar, yen hold steady ahead of European markets open Major currencies are trading lower against the greenback and the yen ForexLive Of note, most major currencies are testing their lows right now against both currencies mentioned. The only real catalyst I can point towards for the mood here is the move lower in equity futures.
Of note, E-minis have moved back to near the lows for the day down by 0. And that's helping to underpin the dollar and the yen a little ahead of the open in Europe. There isn't a clear risk off tone yet but keep an eye on this space for further moves later in the day just in case. Major currencies are trading lower against the greenback and the yen ForexLive Of note, most major currencies are testing their lows right now against both currencies mentioned. Hong Kong markets were closed yesterday but reopened today and things aren't looking good as short sellers appear to be driving the rout here.
Of note, weekend news could be the prime reason for the drop here with Chinese PMI data posting sluggish readings while US-China relations continue to sour. That in turn has a spillover effect to Hong Kong assets. Either way, it's a bad day in general for investors in this space and this is a good primer of what may come next week when mainland Chinese markets reopen. Japan September consumer confidence index Slight delay in the release by the source.
The index measures the households' confidence on the economy, a minor indicator of financial confidence in some ways. A bit of an improvement in consumer sentiment but it's not a major release by any means.
The reading still holds at elevated levels so there isn't much in the release here to note as well. Latest data from the Japanese Cabinet Office - 2 October - RBA statement shows little change but drops inflation forecast RBA removes headline inflation forecast of 1.
October left vs September right ForexLive. The most notable item for me was the dropping of the inflation forecast but essentially it means little in the grand scheme of things. It could be they are less confident of it staying around the forecast level or maybe they're more confident that it'll hold above. But really, this is very much getting a bit nit-picky at this point. In short, the RBA stays on hold and there isn't really any new details here that warrants a shift in the Australian dollar rhetoric.
Also of note, the RBA is seeing the rise in mortgage rates as a minor issue - describing it as lenders raising those rates by "small amounts". But yeah, there isn't anything else that really changes the overall picture here as the two key sticking points remain unchanged: RBA removes headline inflation forecast of 1.
October left vs September right ForexLive The most notable item for me was the dropping of the inflation forecast but essentially it means little in the grand scheme of things.
Full statement of the RBA's October monetary policy meeting The full statement by the Reserve Bank of Australia At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1. The full statement by the Reserve Bank of Australia At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.
RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 1. No change in the cash rate as expected and the language isn't that much different either. The two key sticking points remain which are household consumption and wage growth. The assessment on the economy also hasn't changed so this is pretty much sticking to the status quo by the RBA. I don't see anything to be bullish on the aussie but I guess the fact that the RBA hasn't abandoned all hope on hiking rates just yet is helping a little.
But in the big picture, it's very much a non-event here. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its monetary policy decision - 2 October - decision 1. Japan's finance minister Aso retains post in cabinet reshuffle Taro Aso remains as finance minister ForexLive It's not too surprising as it has already been rumoured that Abe will keep key ministers in their respective posts during this reshuffle. Aso will remain on as finance minister, while Taro Kono retains the post as foreign minister.
Trade minister Hiroshige Seko and economy minister Toshimitsu Motegi also retain their respective posts. Taro Aso remains as finance minister ForexLive It's not too surprising as it has already been rumoured that Abe will keep key ministers in their respective posts during this reshuffle.
Economic data coming up in the European session Some light data points to move things along. There's some light data in the session ahead to get things going but they're mostly of little significance. Prior release can be found here. General housing market sentiment, not a major data release but it'll highlight the state of the UK housing market - which has been slowing down. Focus on the pound is on Brexit still but again data points such as these does affect sentiment.
Therefore, many currency speculators rely on the availability of enormous leverage to increase the value of potential movements.
The Australian dollar remains within the range that it has been in over the past two years on a trade-weighted basis, but it has depreciated against the US dollar along with most other currencies. Take your skills to the next level No matter where you're starting from, we've got what you need to power your potential.